Sewer sleuth smells something by Brian Frazier

A bit of statistics;  According to the 2015 U S Census, American Community Survey there is a total of 552  residential dwelling units in the Carlsborg UGA.

Of these 354 are in mobile home parks that never have to connect to the sewer by state law, leaving a total of 198 residential

dwelling units available for connection, meaning that, the county’s claim of “484 Existing structures within range of initial sewer line”

is a total fabrication. Even with the inclusion of all 62 commercial structures, that would bring the total number of available, combined, Residential/Commercial connections to 260

leaving the county 224 connections short of their stated “484”.

According to the Sewer Financial plan, the county would need to convert 182 “existing structures” to sewer in 2016 and 363 in 2017 and 369

by 2018 or 75% of the “484” existing structures connected within the first two years.  They only have a combined total of 83 Residential/Commercial

connections to date according to the information I received from Clallam County Public Works today.

The county relies on 1.61% “Annual growth in conversions to sewer after the first two years” and 2.15% “New Development growth on the previous years’ total”.

Sad fact is, there have only been 5 new residential units constructed since the 547 residential dwellings identified in the 2010 U S Census bringing that total to 552.

Additionally, according to the 2015 U S Census American Community Survey, the Carlsborg CDP (Carlsborg UGA) population dropped from 995 to 675

individuals from 2010 to 2015.  That’s a 32% decline in Carlsborg UGA population over 5 years or 6.43% annual rate of decline, proving that

the Carlsborg UGA and thereby the sewer has not and will not see the required 2.15% growth in new development or the 1.61% annual conversion to sewer for the sewer system to be financially viable.

This is most likely the main reason that the county wants to push through the new 73 unit manufactured home park on Atterberry Road without all the

required studies as it would add 73 new residential sewer connections bringing the total connections to 156 which is still short of all county projections to

make the sewer system financially viable.

I wonder just how long the county can afford to subsidize the Carlsborg Sewer System and how fast monthly user fees will climb.

Bryan Frazier

 

2 Comments

  1. Bryan Frazier

    Before anyone from the county attempts to discount any of the statistics presented in this post, let me be perfectly clear;

    The population of the Census Designated Place (CDP) is the population of the Carlsborg Urban Growth Area. The Carlsborg CDP a census-designated place, is a concentration of population defined by the United States Census Bureau for statistical purposes only and has it’s own Unique Area Identifier (189885) along with INTERNAL Latitude and Longitude points and boundary outline. http://www.usboundary.com/Areas/Place/Washington/Carlsborg%20CDP/189885

    The Carlsborg CPD is not to be confused with or conflated with the Agnew-Carlsborg Census County Division (CCD). A Census County Division (CCD) is a subdivision of a county used by the United States Census Bureau for the purpose of presenting statistical data with it’s own Unique Area Identifier (155615) along with INTERNAL Latitude and Longitude points and boundary outline. http://www.usboundary.com/Areas/County%20Subdivision/Washington/Clallam%20County/Agnew-Carlsborg%20CCD/155615

    The financial statistics are provided to me from Clallam County Department of Public Works, Carlsborg Sewer Financial Plan EXCEl Workbook used to obtain the $10 million state Public Works Trust Fund Loan.

    Reply
  2. Honest Abe

    One more statistic: Clallam County has ZERO credibility.

    Reply

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