Carlsborg Sewer $20 MILLION SOLUTION BUT NO PROBLEM by Bryan Frazier

First, in 1990 the rural village of Carlsborg never resembled the legal description of an Urban Growth Area as illustrated in the aerial map of the area. Carlsborg did not have the required population, urban development, or the urban public facilities and services to support the designation of UGA.

Secondly, recent findings illustrate that Carlsborg will never meet the estimated base case growth rate of 2.15 percent for new development or the slow growth rate of 1.50 percent needed to support the Carlsborg sewer financially as listed in the Clallam County Carlsborg Sewer Financial Plan.

Designated an Urban Growth Area (GBA)

In 1990, despite public protests, the Clallam County Board of Commissioners and the Department of Community Development designated and rezoned Carlsborg into an Urban Growth Area. They took that action for reasons never fully disclosed to the general public, other than growth and a myth (lacking scientific proof) of elevated nitrates in the ground water from the failed or known to be failing on-site septic systems in Carlsborg.

The county expanded Carlsborg to include within the new UGA boundary property south of Runnion Road to Highway 101 and Atterberry Road, then east along Highway 101 to include Gupster and Gilbert Roads and Taylor Cutoff Road. This would become the new Carlsborg Census Designated Place (CDP) in the year 2000, where the population, within this boundary, would be counted separately for the U. S. Census.

Population in Decline

In 2000 the population of this new CDP was 855 individuals and grew to 995 by 2010, which is roughly 16 percent growth over 10 years or 14 individuals per year for 10 years. This percentage in and of its self is not enough growth to continue to sustain the myth of increased population in Carlsborg requiring a new sewer system. Combine this fact with the American Community Survey (ACS). It was updated and posted December 3, 2015 for the preceding 5 years, January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2014, and shows an estimated population of 627 individuals, a population decline of 37 percent or an average loss of 74 individuals per year since 2010.

The ACS shows a housing vacancy rate of 8.9 percent, no rentals available, and a continuously declining population trend in the Carlsborg CDP. It also shows the inability of the Carlsborg CPD to meet any of the growth estimates for 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014. 2010-2014 ACS Population 2010-2014 ACS Housing 2010 Census 2000 Census

Other Communities’ Issues to Consider

According to Brian Lewis, Business Manager for the Sequim School District, there are currently 2,600 enrolled students in Sequim schools. This is DOWN from 10 years ago, when the number of students was at 2,900. That’s a reduction in student population by 10.3 percent. Sequim School District is asking for an $84 million dollar school bond that’s $54 million plus an estimated $30 million in interest at 4 percent over 20 years. Committee for Truth in Taxation: Clallam County Republican Party.

This rapid decline in growth, being truthful, is startling in the face of the county’s “Assumptions, Projections and Estimated” growth that didn’t happen.

These facts can only lead to a financial calamity for Clallam County when combined with the Clallam County budgetary shortfalls, declining reserve funds, the $1.2 million dollar Carlsborg Sewer budget shortfall, the immediate need to remediate an impending environmental disaster in Sekiu/Clallam Bay due to their sewer failure, the need to secure sustainable potable water supplies for Clallam County, the diminishing returns of Sales and Use Tax to the Opportunity Fund due to Washington State Budgetary Shortfalls, the requirement to fully fund schools, and the mandatory repayment of any proceeds from the $10 million dollar Public Works Trust Fund Loan General Obligation Debt for the Carlsborg Sewer Project.

These facts should be of the greatest concern for all the citizens of Clallam County.

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